Stochastic Quantification of Cyber Attacks Impact on Smart Grid Contingency Analysis
Abstract
A cyberattack on a power grid facility could have repercussions for other infrastructure in the chain, causing a dom-ino effect if the repercussions are not addressed, damaging the entire power system. Our objective was the investiga-tion and quantification of the impact of cyberattacks on interdependent power systems facilities. In this paper, a novel technique based on Stochastic Petri Nets is presented, as well as a comprehensive model of the major impacts of blackouts and cascading events in the power systems of the IEEE 24 bus system is presented in form of loss of revenue. The paper also hypothesizes cyberattacks or digital control system failure as possible causes for cascaded power blackouts. Furthermore, the limitations of current preventive methods and research gaps in the area of power system blackouts and cascade occurrences are identified. Future power system blackout studies and risk assessments shall take this into account as well.
Keywords Cascade, Cyberattacks, False Data Injection Attacks (FDIA), Domino effect, Impact, Stochastic Petri Nets
Full Text:
PDFReferences
SGTF EG2. Recommendations for the European Commis-sion on Implementation of a Network Code on Cyberse-curity, Second Interim Report, Smart Grid Task Force Ex-pert Group. 2018. Available online: https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/sgtf_eg2_2nd_interim_report_final.pdf (accessed on 29 January 2019).
EECSP. Recommendations for the European Commission on a European Strategic Framework and Potential Future Legislative Acts for the Energy Sector, EECSP Expert Group. 2017. Available online: https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/eecsp_report_final.pdf (accessed on 29 January 2019).
European Commission. Joint Communication to the Eu-ropean Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee, and the Committee of the Regions. Cybersecurity Strategy of the European Union: An Open, Safe and Secure Cyberspace, Report. 2013. Available online: https://eeas.europa.eu/archives/docs/policies/eu-cyber-security/cybsec_comm_en.pdf (accessed on 29 January 2019).
Basumallik, Sagnik, "Impact Assessment, Detection, And Mitigation Of False Data Attacks In Electrical Power Sys-tems" (2021). Dissertations - ALL. 1301.https://surface.syr.edu/etd/1301.
Emilie Bout, Valeria Loscri, Antoine Gallais. How Ma-chine Learning changes the nature of cyberattacks on IoT networks: A survey. Communications Surveys and Tutori-als, IEEE Communications Society, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 2021.hal-03390359f.
Bulat, H.; Frankovi´c, D.; Vlahini´c, S. Enhanced Contin-gency Analysis—A Power System Operator Tool. Energies 2021, 14, 923.https://doi.org/10.3390/en14040923.
J. Kang, I. Joo, and D. Choi, "False Data Injection Attacks on Contingency Analysis: Attack Strategies and Impact Assessment," in IEEE Access, vol. 6, pp. 8841-8851, 2018, doi: 10.1109/ACCESS.2018.2801861.
Salimian, M.R.; Aghamohammadi, M.R. A Three Stages Decision Tree-Based Intelligent Blackout Predictor for Power Systems Using Brittleness Indices. IEEE Trans. Smart Grid 2018, 9, 5123–5131.
Zhang, Y.; Xu, Y.; Dong, Z.Y. Robust Ensemble Data Analytics for Incomplete PMU Measurements-Based Power System Stability Assessment. IEEE Trans. Power Syst. 2018, 33, 1124–1126.
Amini, S.; Pasqualetti, F.; Mohsenian-Rad, H. Dynamic load altering attacks against power system stability: Attack models and protection schemes. IEEE Trans. Smart Grid 2018, 9, 2862–2872.
Dharmesh Faquir, Nestoras Chouliaras, Vlachou Sofia, Kalopoulou Olga, Leandros Maglaras. Cybersecurity in smart grids, challenges, and solutions[J]. AIMS Electronics and Electrical Engineering, 2021, 5(1): 24-37. doi: 10.3934/electreng.2021002.
“Reliability standards for the bulk electric systems of north america,” May 2017. [Online]. Available: http://www.nerc.com/pa/Stand/Reliability Standards Com-plete Set/RSCompleteSet.pdf
R. Kuckro, “Simulated cyberattack takes down u.s. power grid,” Nov. 15, 2013. [Online]. Available: http://www.utilitydive.com/news/simulatedcyberattack-takes-down-us-power-grid/195153/
M. Sahraei-Ardakani, X. Li, P. Balasubramanian, K. W. Hedman, and M. Abdi-Khorsand, “Real-time contingency analysis with transmission switching on real power system data,” IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 31, no. 3, pp. 2501–2502, May 2016.
Y. Zhang, L. Wang, and Y. Xiang, “Power system reliabil-ity analysis with intrusion tolerance in SCADA systems,” IEEE Trans. Smart Grid, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 669–683, Mar. 2016.
Y. Zhang, L. Wang, Y. Xiang, and C.-W. Ten, “Inclusion of SCADA cyber vulnerability in power system reliability assessment considering optimal resources allocation,” IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 31, no. 6, pp. 4379–4394, Nov. 2016.
“Results // .” NERC, https://www.nerc.com/search/Pages/results.aspx?k=N-1+contingency.
“What Is a Gauss-Seidel Method? Circuit Globe.” Circuit Globe, 8 Feb. 2021, https://circuitglobe.com/gauss-seidel-method.html.
Rohit Yadav May. “What Is Newton Raphson Method? - Procedure & Flowchart.” Circuit Globe, 8 Feb. 2021, https://circuitglobe.com/newton-raphson-method.html.
A. Umunnakwe, H. Huang, K. Oikonomou, K.R. Davis, Quantitative analysis of power systems resilience: Stand-ardization, categorizations, and challenges, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 149,2021,111252, ISSN 1364-0321,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2021.111252.
J. De La Ree, V. Centeno, J. S. Thorp, and A. G. Phadke, “Synchronized Phasor Measurement Applications in Pow-er Systems,” IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 20–27, 6 2010.
A. Monticelli, State estimation in electric power systems: a generalized approach. Springer Science & Business Media, 2012.
F. Schweppe and J. Wildes, “Power System Static-State Estimation, Part I: Exact Model,” IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, vol. PAS-89, no. 1,pp. 120–125, 1 1970.
A. Monticelli, “Electric power system state estimation,” Proceedings of the IEEE, vol. 88, no. 2, pp. 262–282, 2000.
G. N. Korres and N. M. Manousakis, “State estimation and bad data processing for systems including PMU and SCADA measurements,” Electric Power Systems Research, vol. 81, no. 7, pp. 1514–1524, 7 2011.
V. Murugesan, Y. Chakhchoukh, V. Vittal, G. T. Heydt, N. Logic, and S. Sturgill, “PMU Data Buffering for Power System State Estimators,” IEEE Power and Energy Tech-nology Systems Journal, vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 94–102, 9 2015.
“Financial Transmission Right.” Financial Transmission Right - an Overview | ScienceDirect Topics, https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/financial-transmission-right.
A. Monticelli, “Electric power system state estimation,” Proceedings of the IEEE, vol. 88, no. 2, pp. 262–282, 2000.
Ali Abur, Antonio Gómez Expósito. “Power System State Estimation: Theory and Implementation: Ali Abur.” Taylor & Francis, Taylor & Francis, 24 Mar. 2004, https://www.taylorfrancis.com
F. Capitanescu, M. Glavic, D. Ernst, and L.Wehenkel, “Contingency Filtering Techniques for Preventive Securi-ty-Constrained Optimal Power Flow,” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 22, no. 4, pp. 1690–1697, 11 2007.
R. S.Wibowo, T. P. Fathurrodli, O. Penangsang, and A. Soeprijanto, “Security constrained optimal power flow incorporating preventive and corrective control,” in 2014 Electrical Power, Electronics, Communications, Control, and Informatics Seminar (EECCIS). IEEE, 8 2014, pp. 29–34.
Feng Dong, “Practical applications of Preventive Security Constrained Optimal Power Flow,” in 2012 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting. IEEE, 7 2012, pp. 1–5.
S. Dhople, Y. Chen, L. DeVille, and A. D. Domínguez-García, "Analysis of Power System Dynamics Subject to Stochastic Power Injections", IEEE Transactions on Circuits and Systems I: Regular Papers, vol. 60, no. 12, pp. 3341-3353, Dec. 2013.
Y. Gu and L. Xie, "Stochastic Look-Ahead Economic Dispatch With Variable Generation Resources," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 32, no. 1, pp. 17-29, Jan. 2017
Y. Zhou, Y. Li, W. Liu, D. Yu, Z. Li, and J. Liu, "The Stochastic Response Surface Method for Small-Signal Sta-bility Study of Power System With Probabilistic Uncer-tainties in Correlated Photovoltaic and Loads," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 32, no. 6, pp. 4551-4559, Nov. 2017.
Basumallik, Sagnik, "Impact Assessment, Detection, And Mitigation Of False Data Attacks In Electrical Power Sys-tems" (2021). Dissertations - ALL. 1301. https://surface.syr.edu/etd/1301
H. Wu, I. Krad, E. Ela, A. Florita, E. Ibanez, J. Zhang and B. Hodge, "Stochastic Multi-Timescale Power System Op-erations with Variable Wind Generation", IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 32, no. 5, pp. 3325-3337, Sept. 2017.
M. Khodayar, M. Shahidehpour and L. Wu, "Enhancing the Dispatchability of Variable Wind Generation by Coor-dination With Pumped-Storage Hydro Units in Stochastic Power Systems", IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 28, no. 3, pp. 2808-2818, Aug. 2013.
F. Milano and R. Zarate-Minano, "A Systematic Method to Model Power Systems as Stochastic Differential Algebraic Equations", IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 28, no. 4, pp. 4537-4544, Nov. 2013.
Li, H.; Ju, P.; Gan, C.; Wu, F.; Zhou, Y.; Dong, Z. Sto-chastic Stability Analysis of the Power System with Losses. Energies 2018, 11, 678. https://doi.org/10.3390/en11030678
Xu Y, Wen F, Zhao H, Chen M, Yang Z, Shang H. Sto-chastic Small Signal Stability of a Power System with Un-certainties. Energies. 2018; 11(11):2980. https://doi.org/10.3390/en11112980
Amini, S.; Pasqualetti, F.; Mohsenian-Rad, H. Dynamic load altering attacks against power system stability: Attack models and protection schemes. IEEE Trans. Smart Grid 2018, 9, 2862–2872.
Adeen, Muhammad, and Federico Milano. “Modeling of Correlated Stochastic Processes for the Transient Stability Analysis of Power Systems.” NASA/ADS, https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2021ITPSy..36.4445A/abstract.
Y. Zhang, L. Wang, and W. Sun, “Investigating the impact of cyber attacks on power system reliability,” IEEE Inter-national Conference on Cyber Technology in Automation, Control and Intelligent Systems, 2013, pp. 462-467.
K. Huang, C. Zhou, Y.-C. Tian, S.-H. Yang, and Y. Qin, “Assessing the physical impact of cyberattacks on indus-trial cyber-physical systems,” IEEE Transactions on In-dustrial Electronics, vol. 65, no. 10, pp. 8153-8162, Oct. 2018.
T. Meraj, S. Sharmin, and A. Mahmud, “Studying the im-pacts of cyber-attack on smart grid,” 2nd International Conference on Electrical Information and Communication Technologies (EICT), 2015, pp. 461-466.
Y. Xiang, L. Wang, and Y. Zhang, “Power system ade-quacy assessment with probabilistic cyber attacks against breakers,” IEEE PES General Meeting | Conference & Exposition, 2014, pp. 1-5.
Boyaci, Osman, et al. “Spatio-Temporal Failure Propaga-tion in Cyber-Physical Power Systems.” 2022 3rd Interna-tional Conference on Smart Grid and Renewable Energy (SGRE) (2022): 1-6.
Liu, Zhaoxi, et al. “An Actuarial Framework for Power System Reliability Considering Cybersecurity Threats.” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 36 (2021): 851-864.
P. Lau, W. Wei, L. Wang, Z. Liu and C. -W. Ten, "A Cy-bersecurity Insurance Model for Power System Reliability Considering Optimal Defense Resource Allocation," in IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, vol. 11, no. 5, pp. 4403-4414, Sept. 2020, doi: 10.1109/TSG.2020.2992782.
Lau, et al. “A Cybersecurity Insurance Model for Power System Reliability Considering Optimal Defense Resource Allocation.” IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 1 Sept. 2020, https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10189117-cybersecurity-insurance-model-power-system-reliability-considering-optimal-defense-resource-allocation.
U. Shahzad, “Economic Impact Assessment of Cyber Attacks on the Smart Power System,” Journal of Electrical Engineering, Electronics, Control, and Computer Science, vol. 8, pp. 39-46,2022.
GRIF-Workshop, Retrieved from 2021. Satodev, Total. http://grif-workshop.com.
Rastgou, Abdollah. Study of Transmission Expansion Planning with Security Considerations and High Penetra-tion of Wind Energy. International Journal on Electrical Engineering and Informatics. 6. 460-478. 10.15676/ijeei.2014.6.3.2.
Hindolo George-Williams, Nisrine Kebir, Stephanie Hirm-er, Malcolm McCulloch. (2021). Sample Electricity Grid Outage Management Data. IEEE Dataport. https://dx.doi.org/10.21227/cwkn-9888
Nyoni KJ, Maronga A, Tuohy PG, Shane A. Hydro–connected floating PV renewable energy system and on-shore wind potential in Zambia. Energies. 2021 Jan;14(17):5330.
Maronga A, Nyoni KJ, Tuohy PG, Shane A. Evaluation of PV and CSP systems to supply power in the Zimbabwe mining sector. Energies. 2021 Jan;14(13):3740
Refbacks
Copyright (c) 2022 Journal of Electrical Engineering, Electronics, Control and Computer Science
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.